Early Warning System Predicts Outbreaks of Malaria

LONDON (Reuters) – An early warning system based on climate models, average rainfall and data on seasonal malaria can predict the risk of an epidemic of the killer disease five months in advance, scientists said on Wednesday.
The system has been devised by researchers in the United States, Britain and Botswana.

“We can give warnings of high risk of an epidemic to the health agency and officials in the country ahead of the rainy season. This is something they have not had before,” said Tim Palmer, a climate modeller at the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, England.

Malaria, a parasitic disease transmitted by mosquitoes, kills more than a million people a year, mostly young children in Africa.

Changes in climate and rainfall have an impact on the seriousness of a malaria outbreak. In countries like Botswana, where the system was tested, the risk of an epidemic increases after a season of heavy rain.

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Using the system, they retrospectively predicted malaria outbreaks in Bostwana from 1982 to 2002, according to the research reported in the journal Nature.

“What we have demonstrated in this project, which makes it unique, is the speed at which cutting-edge climate research can be translated into operational activity in Africa,” said Madeleine Thomson of the Earth Institute at Columbia University and a co-author of the report.

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