Four Scenarios for the Future Church

” Despite the astonishing stamina of John Paul II, at some point the Holy Father will go to his reward and the Catholic church will find itself at a crossroads. ” John Allen speaking to the Catholic Press Association offers his insights in 4 possible scenarios based on his conversation with many Cardinals.I’m honored to be here for two reasons. First, it’s a delight to be at the convention of the Catholic Press Association, among friends and colleagues whose work I have long admired. Second, it is a special honor to share this platform with Fr. Richard John Neuhaus, whose contributions to public discussion in the Catholic church help all of us think through very complicated issues. I make no pretense of having either Fr. Neuhaus’ depth of experience or clearly articulated point of view, and I will limit myself to a more strictly reportorial approach, which I will outline in a moment.

First, however, I’d like to briefly lay out the perspective I bring. I am what the Italians call a Vaticanista, meaning that it is my full-time professional work to track the vicissitudes in this 108-acre island of ecclesiastical life in the heart of modern urban Rome called “the Vatican.” Concretely, this means that several times a year I have the opportunity to go to the third floor of the Apostolic Palace, into the papal apartments, to watch the Holy Father receive some dignitary, usually a head of state. Almost every day I’m in Rome takes me in and out of some office of the Roman Curia. I’m in constant phone and e-mail contact with officials of the Curia, trying to keep my finger on the pulse of what’s going on. My life is composed of a seemingly infinite series of congresses, symposia, plenary assemblies, book presentations, press conferences, lunches and dinners and embassy parties. All are venues in which contacts are developed that are the lifeline of covering any beat, especially one that emphasizes a personal rapport with sources like the Vatican. Finally, I move when the pope moves. In the last three and a half years, therefore, I’ve been with the Holy Father to Greece, Syria, Ukraine, Canada, Guatemala, Mexico, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Spain, Croatia, Slovakia and Bosnia.

The advantage of my job is that I get to watch this institution day in and day out, developing a warts-and-all understanding of what makes it tick. That is true not just of the Vatican, but also of the College of Cardinals, the body that will elect the next pope (and out of whose 125 members under 80 the next pope will be selected). By this stage, I’ve interviewed more than 60 cardinals about their vision of the future of the church, and the profile of the kind of leadership the church will need. Hence what I hope to offer this morning is the fruit of that experience.

Approach

What I intend to do is a bit of political analysis. I will sketch what I have come to see as the four basic currents of thought within the College of Cardinals, identifying in each case a representative cardinal who is currently regarded as a serious contender to be pope. Then I will tease out consequences of this cardinal’s election on three key issues sure to be on the next pope’s agenda: collegiality; evangelization; and the church’s relationship with Islam. In this fashion, I will put together four possible scenarios of where the Catholic church might go over the next 25 years.

Issues

Let me briefly outline the three issues. I did not select these three themes at random; they are instead the most common issues I hear in conversations with cardinals, when I ask what will loom largest when it comes time for them to vote.

* Collegiality: This terms gathers up a number of questions about how power is exercised and decisions made in the Catholic church. A number of cardinals believe that for a variety of complex historical reasons, the power of Rome in the 19th and 20th centuries over the local churches was expanded to an unprecedented degree, and that various attempts to inject balance have been largely unsuccessful. Some of these cardinals would argue for a greater role for bishops in setting policy in the universal church, while others support greater freedom for bishops in governing their own dioceses. Others, however, see a strong papacy as essential in a world in which secularism, relativism, and various nationalisms threaten the unity of the church. Still others see “collegiality” as a code word for broader questions about power in the church, especially how laity can collaborate on matters such as personnel, finance and administration.

* Evangelization: While the Catholic church recorded impressive gains in parts of the world in the 20th century, especially Africa, Latin America and Asia, the traditional cradle of Catholic culture in Europe is experiencing an ecclesiastical winter. Vocations have experienced dramatic declines, Mass attendance rates are in some cases in single digits, and the diminished public influence of the church can be seen from the fact that 12 European nations now have some form of civil registration for same-sex unions, and three offer full marriage rights. Given the rising tide of Islamic immigration, some fear a day when Christianity will no longer be the dominant religious impulse in Europe. One striking statistic: there are already more practicing Muslims who go to mosque on Friday in the United Kingdom than practicing Anglicans who go to church on Sunday. While the signals are more mixed in North America, one can certainly find similar indicators of crisis. What pastoral strategy is best suited to revitalize Christianity in the developed world will certainly be among the front-burner debates.

* Islam: Before Sept. 11, 2001, several cardinals believed that the church’s relationship with Islam was among the most important challenges facing the next pope. Now, virtually all think so. Broadly speaking, there are two camps. Doves believe that the church must reach out to moderate centers of opinion. By denouncing social and political injustices that the suffering of Muslim peoples, the church will demonstrate its friendship to Islam, as well as its independence from Western political agenda. Efforts to convert or confront Muslims are rejected. Hawks say it is naïve to believe there is such a thing as moderate Islam, in terms of social influence. In the near term, they believe that in the zones where Christians and Muslims rub shoulders — Indonesia, North Africa, the Arab world, Europe — the reality is likely to be conflict, and Christians had better be ready. That means demanding reciprocity for religious freedom in the West, calling a spade a spade when Muslims engage in terrorism, and not turning the other cheek when Christian communities are under assault.

The Parties

Let me briefly sketch what I see as the four “political parties” in the College of Cardinals. Obviously, these are not parties in the traditional sense — there are no conventions, no bumper stickers, no soft-money issue ads. They are more like loosely defined bodies of thought. At the same time, they do represent distinct options for the future of the church.

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